The Pulse
The Pulse: The Positive Board Held. Its Leadership Gap Vanished.
Thesis
The four-market positive structure survived into the current window, but last week's wide leadership gap did not: Pokemon, One Piece, Magic, and Lorcana now sit within 1.9 percentage points of one another after spanning 17.5 points one window earlier.
Four of five TCGs still leaned positive, but only 60.3% of the total usable sample rose, down from 64.6% one window earlier. The biggest change was not a new winner. It was Lorcana falling back toward the pack.
If last week's Lorcana numbers made it look like the category had separated from the rest of the board, this week's pass asks for a reset.
For a new reader, breadth is the share of tracked cards whose one-month change is positive. It tells us how widely a move is participating. It does not explain why prices moved, predict how long the move will last, or turn every card in a category into the same story.
Four of the five tracked TCGs still have more rising cards than falling cards. But Pokemon, One Piece, Magic, and Lorcana now fit inside a 1.9-percentage-point breadth band. One window earlier, those four positive markets stretched across 17.5 points because Lorcana stood far above the pack.
That is the useful update. This is not a five-market collapse, and it is not evidence that a new category has taken the lead. It is a flatter board that gives collectors less reason to carry last week's category assumptions into this week's card-level decisions.
Breadth Compression
Four positive markets, no decisive breadth leader.
The positive-market range collapsed as Lorcana moved back toward the pack. The broad structure survived, but the prior hierarchy did not.
Prior positive-market range
17.5 points
The four positive lanes stretched from 64.47% to 82.00%.
Current positive-market range
1.9 points
The four positive lanes now sit between 64.47% and 66.33%.
Current positive sample
60.3%
599 of 993 usable one-month reads are positive.
Negative-breadth exception
Yu-Gi-Oh
79 up and 121 down across 200 tracked cards.
Breadth measures participation inside the tracked sample. It does not establish cause, durability, or the direction of an individual card.
Two-Window Market Board
A 17.5-point lead compressed to 1.9.
The current and prior breadth windows show where participation held, where it narrowed, and why no positive market now owns a decisive lead.
Positive, with less cushion
Current breadth
66.00% positive
Prior breadth
72.00% positive
Positive participation remains, but Pokemon now sits inside the same narrow band as the other constructive markets.
The steadiest positive lane
Current breadth
66.33% positive
Prior breadth
66.67% positive
One Piece changed least by positive share, which makes stability the useful read rather than a new-leader claim.
Quiet continuity
Current breadth
65.48% positive
Prior breadth
64.47% positive
Magic's positive share edged higher, blocking a blanket claim that every constructive market weakened.
The outlier moved back to the pack
Current breadth
64.47% positive
Prior breadth
82.00% positive
Lorcana drove the compression, but its current sample remains positive. This is convergence, not collapse.
Still the negative-breadth exception
Current breadth
39.50% positive
Prior breadth
38.00% positive
A slightly wider positive share did not repair the category's still-negative breadth structure.
Positive shares use usable one-month changes within each TCG. Percentage-point deltas are calculated from the unrounded shares before display.
Why Readers Should Care
A market with four positive lanes is not the same thing as a market with one clear leader. The first tells us participation still exists. The second would justify stronger language about where that participation is most concentrated.
This week, the category labels are less useful as shortcuts. Pokemon lost some of its prior cushion, One Piece barely moved, Magic quietly held, and Lorcana gave back the exceptional separation that made it last week's outlier. A collector still has to prove the individual card story instead of borrowing confidence from the category headline.
For returning readers, this resolves the question left open by the previous Pulse: Lorcana's unusually wide breadth did not persist at the same distance from the pack. For anyone arriving fresh, the takeaway is simpler: four markets are positive, but none currently owns a decisive breadth advantage.
How the Week Proved Itself
Pokemon stayed positive but no longer carried a visibly wider breadth cushion than the other constructive markets. Its positive share moved from 72.00% to 66.00%, placing it inside the same narrow band as One Piece, Magic, and Lorcana. Pokemon remains constructive, but last week's category-level lead is not a shortcut for judging an individual card now.
One Piece supplied the steadiest breadth result in the two-window comparison. Its positive share moved only from 66.67% to 66.33%, while the median remained positive at 14.14%. Stability is the useful One Piece signal; the data does not support calling it a decisive new leader.
Magic prevents the article from becoming a generic cooling story. Its positive share increased from 64.47% to 65.48%, while its median was nearly unchanged at 5.99%. The board flattened because market paths differed, not because every positive lane weakened together.
Lorcana is where last week's exceptional separation failed to confirm. Its positive share fell 17.53 percentage points to 64.47%, and its median moved from 36.78% to 17.35%. Lorcana remains positive in the current sample, but it no longer deserves outlier language based on breadth alone.
Yu-Gi-Oh remained the boundary that keeps this from becoming a five-market positive call. Its positive share improved 1.50 points, yet 121 of 200 tracked cards fell and the median moved to -3.43%. A small improvement in participation does not override the category's still-negative current structure.
Evidence & Method
Direction comes from recorded one-month percentage changes in the W30 and W31 tiered enrichment files. The comparison uses two consecutive deterministic windows whose latest sales points are dated July 13 and July 20, 2026. Both passes tracked 997 cards; 995 prior and 993 current rows had usable one-month changes.
Positive-share calculations use usable changes within each TCG, and percentage-point deltas use the unrounded shares before display. Rolling windows overlap, so this comparison describes how the measured board changed; it does not isolate reprints, supply, playability, release cycles, or any other cause.
Sample composition and missing values can also affect comparisons. One window does not establish durability. This is market commentary, not investment advice.
- Source
- TrendApe W30 and W31 enriched tiered market memory (TCGplayer)
- Window
- Consecutive rolling one-month windows with latest sales points dated 2026-07-13 and 2026-07-20
- Volume
- 997 tracked cards in each pass; 995 prior and 993 current rows with usable one-month changes
- Method
- Five-market breadth comparison using usable one-month changes within each TCG
- Caveat
- Overlapping windows and deterministic samples; market commentary, not investment advice
What to Remember
"Four markets still have positive breadth, but none owns a decisive lead; the positive structure survived while its hierarchy flattened."
The next useful check is whether one market separates again or the four positive lanes keep moving as a pack.